TX-Sen: Cornyn Leads Noriega By 13

Rasmussen (6/25, likely voters, 6/2 in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 35 (35)

Big John Cornyn (R-inc): 48 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Yes, Cornyn is under 50, but the most important number in this race will be revealed by July 15: Noriega’s second quarter fundraising haul. If Noriega hasn’t started raising some serious money by now, he may not have the resources he needs to be competitive in the fall. It’s a tough reality, but we all know that winning a statewide race in Texas — especially against an incumbent — requires some major resources. We’ll soon find out if Noriega is on pace to amass the infrastructure he needs to close the gap.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-39 in the state.